Prediction


While Facebook informed me that yet another of my old classmates has a baby, I thought about teen pregnancy and the recession. More and more young people will be leaving school to go to no jobs, where’s the incentive not to start their family early? A number of girls I was at school with aspired to this anyway; I remember one telling the careers adviser that her plan for after school was to have babies. With falling job prospects I predict teen pregnancy is going to rise… Some people will ride out the recession by getting an education, some will do it by getting kids. Hmmm…

42 comments to Prediction

  1. oliverjackson says:

    You’re intuition is correct, this year (according to the Telegraph in February) teenage pregnancy rates were up for the first time in seven years. But before that we already had the highest teenage pregnancy rates in western Europe and, I think, along with the US, the highest in the developed world. Surely there are others factors at work? I don’t know… And what could the government do to lower it?

    Here’s the story anyway: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/4838007/Teenage-pregnancies-rise-for-first-time-in-seven-years.html.

  2. chrisblewitt says:

    Other factors?

    one word…

    alcohol

  3. oliverjackson says:

    Ah yes, alcohol (and drugs), although I get the impression there’s more to it than one word.

  4. brigidjones says:

    I don’t think alcohol is so much a problem, there is always the morning after pill or abortion if you regret it that much and if you don’t like either of those options you’re probably celibate. I think it’s more the attitude in the first place, people don’t appreciate how easy it is to get pregnant or how hard it may be or underprepared they are to raise a child. Or in my experience whether the father wants the child or not. Attitudes to contraception need to be fixed, for both sexes

  5. chrisblewitt says:

    ‘there is always the morning after pill or abortion if you regret it that much’

    If its that easy why do we still have the highest teenage pregnancy rates in europe, even after the government has invested massively in contraception/sex education programmes?

    I’m only going on the anecdotal evidence that my parents speak about from the secondary schools they work in. They seem to think that most of the teenage pregnancies they come across have had something to do with the heavy drinking culture that a lot of teenagers (including myself) take part in. I am merely musing over a possible connection between some of the highest teenage drinking rates in europe and the highest teenage pregnancy rates in europe both being found in Britain.

  6. Daniel Cole says:

    well said Chris

  7. JACK MATTHEW says:

    I know this is off topic but a lot of these blogs have been slightly trivial lately. That’s not the fault of any individual as people are busy right now and the blogging that we have had has been very good.

    Unfortunatly though, we are on the verge of electoral melt-down and our leader has become a national joke. I’m wondering what people think about all of this as I haven’t really seen many of you for a while. Have any of our MPs got the balls ; ) to challenge Brown? I know there are no formal mechanisms for this but he just has to go. What distresses me most about all of this is that people still have reservations about a Tory government. We are losing more than they are winning and this will not change with Gordon Brown at the helm.

    • oliverjackson says:

      You’d stimulate a lot more debate as well as begin to solve the problem of the apparently trivial nature of the blogs by writing one yourself, rather than secreting the question under the topic of teenage prenancy. Personally, at least, I’d prefer to debate important issues such as this in a more appropriate place.

  8. Angry Brit says:

    Sounds like Mr Jackson doesn’t want this society to be shown up for the failure it is. Bit like the real Labour Party really.

  9. JACK MATTHEW says:

    Mr Jackson, I have writen blogs and as I said in my comment I’m not criticising any individual for this problem. I am merely making the observation that no blog recently has raised the issue. A blog on teenage pregnancy, MPs expenses or Norman Tebbit is perfectly valid by itself but it just seems odd that it hasn’t been covered by any of the regular bloggers.

    I’m interested to see that you haven’t said anything about the issue. That is not a criticism but an observation. However it has worrying implications: Is our silence a parallel of the silence in Westminster? It seems that many are keen to ‘speak no evil’. Considering how painful leadership challenges are, this isn’t surprising.

  10. brigidjones says:

    I agree its a shame about the lack of challenging blogs, or blogs at all for that matter… on my own part I had a degree to finish, so for the sake of my own future and blood presure virtually banned myself from the internet and newspapers for three months.

    Which gave me a taste of the ignorant bliss most of the public live in when it comes to news and politics, and boy do I envy them.

    Normal service should be resumed shortly, I have three months of socialising and relaxing to catch up on first though… And I imagine most of our other bloggers are in a similar position.

    In the meantime, do feel free to blog yourself, we will publish all (non illegal/threatening/libellous etc etc etc) submissions to committee@bulsonline.org :)

  11. Angry Brit says:

    How come the BUCF lot managed it?

  12. brigidjones says:

    What little free time members have had free they have generally spent doing pro labour and anti-bnp campaigning across the city. It’s about priorities. Not myself I must admit, I’ve just been working for my own benefit for the last few months. But members have been working very hard at it.

    Also we don’t think our views are so vitally important to the future of the country that they’re worth taking time out of the most crucial time in our education to propogate.

    (TONGUE IN CHEEK!!!)

  13. JACK MATTHEW says:

    It’s really annoying. I was really keen to do lots of campaigning this time round, but now I’m not even sure who I’m going to vote for. I’m thinking that a horrendous result might be the best thing for the party.

  14. tomguise says:

    BUCF are just really really good at time management. Plus, I haven’t seen any of them at the anti-bnp campaigning, so they must have a bit of free time.

  15. Angry Brit says:

    Guise I know being a cocky git is your favourite passtime but lets just remember that much of the BNP’s support comes from disgruntled LABOUR voters. If the Tory voters are to turn to anyone it will be UKIP not the BNP. This is just 1 example:

    http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2009/02/labour-ukip-voters-turn-to-bnp-in-kent.html

    Therefore if Labour hadn’t betrayed their own (and everyone else) perhaps we wouldnt see such a rise in BNP support.

  16. tomguise says:

    blimey, tories really get defensive if you use BNP inthe same sentence.

    I wasn’t implying anything you moron.

    Except ofcourse that they might have a bit of free time.

  17. Angry Brit says:

    Free time? Most of them are still doing their exams yet theyve still had dinner with Lord Trimble, held a European campaign day, kept the blog up to date as much as possible and welcomed prospective MEP’s on to campus. You’re right about one thing though: they certainly do know how to time manage. And besides who said Im a Tory?! :P

  18. tomguise says:

    is it really that bad the blog has hardly been updated?

    i said you were a tory, up there above your last comment. i did use the small t, and the term tory is synonymous with conservative, small c, which i’m guessing you are. A) you’re angry, like many conservatives (small c) and B) you’ve got a link, albeit broken, to the UKIP site, a conservative (small c) party.

    I never said you were a Tory or a Conservative – i don’t care in the formal sense. I merely said you were tory, small t, conservative, small c, there’s a difference. I’m sticking my neck out though on that, maybe you’re super left wing.

  19. Angry Brit says:

    Youre making out as if I went off ona rampage at the fact your blog wasnt update. I merely played devils advocate when one of your commentators was claiming the committee didn’t have ‘enough time’. I then compared it to the BUCF lot in very similar circumstances and as you will no doubt deny, the comparison was not favourable to BULS. That said it is the exam time and perhaps BUCF are just an ‘extraordinary’ case. I really do sound like a tory dont I?! lol

  20. tomguise says:

    i might just be venting frustration on you, i too am angry and british.

  21. British and Proud says:

    So is the VPEA-elect saying that second years and politics students don’t do any revision.

    Is she putting some people’s degrees above others?

  22. brigidjones says:

    It stands to reason that people doing politics degrees are probably going to be reading more about politics and likely to do political blogging at this time of year than people thinking about other stuff! And also from my own experience that people do more revision the later in their degree they are. That’s all I meant.

    But yeah I can see how that could be misinterpreted so I’ll take it down to avoid causing any more offence and I’m sorry to anyone I did offend with that. Of course I don’t think any degree is worth less than others.

  23. JACK MATTHEW says:

    I didn’t mean to start an argument about the blogging. As I said before, no individual is responsible for the absence of a blog on the leadership. Brigid and Tom have continued to blog; it just so happens that those blogs haven’t covered that particular issue.

    Right now I’ve become convinced that we need a disaster Tomorrow/on Monday. Brown needs to go and I personnaly believe that PM Cruddas is our best hope. Of course hopefuly it will be down to a ballot of MPs so in the party member ship we won’t have the chance to vote.

  24. JACK MATTHEW says:

    Yay! James Purnell has kicked things off. : S

  25. JACK MATTHEW says:

    FFS Nick Robinson’s saying that things may look better for Brown if the election results aren’t too bad. Whatever the results are, we are finished if we stick with Brown.

  26. Dan says:

    Jack. Youre finished anyway lol. If Brown goes there will be a general election within a month. Do you really think people will let ANOTHER Prime Minister in to Downing Street without an election? It will be an unmitigated disaster for Labour to get rid of Brown now. Theyre better to stick it out and wait for the final curtain call in May next year. The expenses furore will have calmed down and the economy is likely to be in slow recovery. You will lose but not as badly as you would if it were held now as it would have to be if Brown was removed.

  27. brigidjones says:

    You don’t elect Prime Ministers, you elect a local MP and whichever party gets a majority, their leader gets to be PM. Prime Ministers are not meant to be directly elected. We’re not America, did you get your AS and A2 politics notes mixed up? ;)

    Brown can win, if he adopts a somewhat radical and refreshing manifesto we can be proud to fight for and quote from on the doorsteps.

    If.

  28. JACK MATTHEW says:

    “…there will be a general election within a month”

    What on earth makes you think that?

    Brigid, Brown cannot win. There comes a certain point when the elastic limit has been reached, and that happened a long time ago. No matter what Brown does now, the British people have made their minds up. in many ways he’s in a worse position than IDS. We need a new leader within two weeks.

  29. JACK MATTHEW says:

    Why are they being so weak? Everybody in the country is saying the same thing: Brown cannot win in 2010. I can’t believe that people are prepared to see electoral oblivion in 2010 just for the sake of a few months in a top cabinet post.

    “Brown can win, if he adopts a somewhat radical and refreshing manifesto we can be proud to fight for and quote from on the doorsteps.”

    Brown is an electoral millstone around our necks. He’s been slow to react on all the major issues, he lacks presentation skills and has a personality that just bleeds votes. Yes I know it’s not all about presentation, but it matters. If we don’t present oursleves properly that Dave gets in.

  30. brigidjones says:

    Oh I don’t actually think Brown will win! I think it is possible, if something drastically unforseeable were to happen or the party were to literally about-face, but it that won’t happen. The thing is he’s done nothing shockingly awful, just nothing great. A third leader would be even worse suicide than sticking with Brown, no one would tolerate a third leader.

  31. JACK MATTHEW says:

    We certainly have nothing to lose with a third leader.

  32. JACK MATTHEW says:

    Where will we campaign in May?

  33. JACK MATTHEW says:

    According to BPIX, 52% of people belive that Brown should step down against 34% who think he should stay; and 72% belive he’s doing a bad job.

    I know BPIX is not a member of the British polling council but even allowing for a huge margin of error, people want him to go. We need a new leader elected by a parliamentary ballot. If they don’t have the courage to make this change, then we’re screwed.

  34. Angry Brit says:

    Well said Brigid

  35. tomguise says:

    wicked a Physics undergrad out-smarted a politics undergrad on the most basic of principles in our british democracy.

    She’s learning, i’m so proud of her!!

    I think the results we’ve seen show that people still don’t quite understand where the tories are coming from, they haven’t increased their vote to anything like what they need to have a decent majority…the tories still have a long way to go.

    maybe tomorrows EU results will prove a different story, but people tend to protest in that election rather than resoundedly support one party over another.

  36. Dan says:

    Brigid was spot on in the sense she reiterates my argument that noone will tolerate a third leader of the Labour party and thus a third prime minister. There will have to be a general election and if they refuse the people will let them get away with it in the short term but absolutely obliterate them when an election is called. Therefore she is right to say its electoral suicide to get rid of Brown.

    You are right however in one sense Tom, the tory vote did decrease slightly. However youve got to look at the areas where it increased. Derbyshire has gone blue. Staffordshire has gone blue. In all these vital areas, to name just a few, our vote has gone up threefold. We’re winning where we need to win. Of course there is work to be done to win the publics trust and the expenses scandal did indeed rub off slightly on us aswell.

    But make no mistake these results were beyond disastorous for Labour. They have ceased to be a credible government and party. They are out of ideas and out of time. The public have had enough and I personally believe that Jim Callaghan was right when he said that every now and then there is a sea change in British politics, it doesnt matter what you say or what you do. John Major faced such a sea change and now so is Brown. All your attentions now should be on how to limit the scale of your defeat. Not try to turn the tide because its too late for that.

  37. tomguise says:

    was the third paragraph copied out of tory-boy magazine?

  38. JACK MATTHEW says:

    People might not like the idea of another PM right now, but the pertinent question is how that PM would compare with David Cameron. Wiser Tories will be breathing a sigh of relief over the survival of Brown.

  39. Angry Brit says:

    I don’t know whats happening with the BUCF blog, it seems to have collapsed in recent weeks! I thought theyd have relished the chance to revel in Labours defeats! Also I think youre right Jack, wise Tories will be breathing a sigh of relief over Browns survival because the likihood is things will get worse before they get better and when the election finally does come Labour is likely to be in an even worse state thus increasing the likihood of an outright Tory victory. Brown would have to do something miraculous to turn this around but I for one am pleased that hes been given the chance even if I think he is a sub-standard Prime Minister.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s