Neck and neck
As this article shows (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7054655.ece), polling in the key marginal seats is essentially, neck and neck with occasionally Labour pulling ahead to a o.6% margin, while this is certainly not much it is far better than it was about 6 months ago.
But what has gone wrong for the Tories, throughout most of 2009 they were often polling around a 15% lead, this has been drastically slashed to around 6% now and because the FPTP system heavily favours Labour (the great irony of Tory opposition to the proposed AV system) it would mean the Tories would only just be the largest party in a hung Parliament by 3 or so seats. There are a number of reasons I believe for this decline:
Obviously, these past 2 months for Dave have not been his best, Ashcroft non-dom revelation, changing tack on spending cuts, 3 times getting the statistics wrong (crime, teenage pregnancy rates and the number of votes cast at the last election). But, I personally think there is one simple reason, they have got complacent, the Tories believe they will be able to just waltz into No. 10 and in doing so have not made the policies bomb-proof (so to speak) for when the spotlight was turned upon them. Back in 1997, New Labour feared Major and the government and so they ran a highly tight campaign, not leaving room for error. This is the Tory’s greatest failure, underestimating Labour.
Max
Birmingham University Labour Students
John Ritchie
Brigidjones
daveborland
dorameredith
bensemens
chrisblewitt
oliverjackson
maxattacks
joshualt
suzannahrobinson
kohalloran
jakelambertonline
smurphy2010
labourluke
bulsonline
Guardian Unlimited
I don’t think the Tories have got complacent. I think they are trying harder than ever in fact. Personally, I think the issue is that people are still not sure what the Conservatives are actually going to do that is different to Labour.
I hear a lot of anti-Labour voices when I am out and about. This is to be expected when campaigning for a government that has been in power for over a decade. But I only very rarely hear of enthusiasm for the Conservatives (and when I am canvassing, I do ask the question). I am not saying that this is because there is necessarily a dislike of their policies. I think, the issue is one of communication. My girlfriend is apolitical and in fact tells me off if ever I rant about politics. She intends to vote, but is far from convinced by either side. A floating voter would probably be the best description for her. But when ever she hears David Cameron (and she has once said the same when George Osborne was speaking), she says the same thing “He says all that, but he has not actually told me what he is going to do any different.” I think that in essence sums up the recent Tory troubles in extending their lead.