Today was published the latest growth figures of the third quarter between July and September. 0.8% which was twice as high as the expected 0.4%. Now, don’t forget though, this is still primarily due to the last Labour government, the Coalition had been in power for four months and this is before the CSR. I’m going to say that the final quarter will mainly be the cause of the last government as it will take a while for the CSR to effect, so anything that happens in 2011 will be the credit or failure of the Coalition as the CSR begins to bite. However, most economists are still arguing that the economy is still fragile, so don’t place your bets yet, and it is still warning for the governments deficit reduction plan, don’t be nailed to the mast.
Max
This is AFTER the Governments Emergency Budget though so most economist are actually saying that this suprising growth is down to the proposals set forward in the Emegency Budget which gave the markets and consumers confidence in the future of the economy. So whilst the coalition cannot claim all the credit, neither can Labour.
Well yes after, but even by the end of September it would have only really begun to effect the real economy. And contrare Dan consumer confidence hit the lowest in a year at end of July http://www.marketresearchworld.net/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=3342&Itemid=76 and a fall in business confidence in same period http://www.grant-thornton.co.uk/thinking/elevate/index.php/elevate_templates/article/fall_in_business_confidence_indicates_slow-down_in_economic_recovery/
This is a very uncertain period economically and we could bounce links to different opinions back and forward until the cows come home. The fact remains there isn’t one person, economist, politician or otherwise that thinks Labour bequeathed a good economic inheritance to the coalition so they would do well to not jump for joy everytime a slither of light comes through. A better analysis of the state of the economy today would be; “Sh*t… but not as sh*t as we’d feared” lol
Well my cows came home long ago Dan, dunno bout yours, lol! But I’d have to more or less agree with everything else you said, not great, but not as bad as many were expecting.
I, unlike some of my Tory/Labour counterparts, am not convinced that either Labour or Tory can take credit for this sslliigghtt improvement in our economic circumstance, theres still a long road ahead bbuutt to my great suprise I find myself warming to the idea that perhaps a less brutal, slower paced, deficit reduction plan should be considered given the improving economic circumstances. I find myself somewhere between the Tory party and the Labour party. Tories im beginning to think are too tough and Labour are too soft. Why oh why can’t we find a Third Way?!?! lol ;P
You feeling ok Dan? lol. Though I have to agree with you there on credit, it may be partly either ones credit or failure, but you have to take into account the global economy in general, particular of our big trading partners in Europe and across to America.
lol don’t sound so suprised. Im actually very pragmatic
I do believe the deficit has to be tackled quickly and severely, I find the idea of paying £42bn a year in interest alone HORRIFIC so the deficit needs to be tackled fast theres no doubt about that, bbuttt we should also take in to account wider economic conditions and shouldn’t feel unable to moderate our approach in the light of more positive economic statistics. Its not a u-turn its a slight moderation of course with the same end destination in mind.
You’re right about global conditions though. In the 80′s the way Labour was going on you’d think Britain was the only one with high unemployment, recession, inflation, social unrest etc but with the birth of New Labour, they recognised that we can’t live in this little isolationist bubble and they began to understand that our economy is susceptable to wider global influences which, with the best will in the world, we cannot escape or avoid. The 80′s marked the transformation when “britain went global” and it wasn’t without pain but it was worth it in the longer run. I hope that we will be able to say the same in the coming years.
I’m fairly sure I’m right when I say this doesn’t seem to be particularly good news. The Office for Budget Resposibility estimated, after the Emergency Budget, 1.2% growth for this year, so this is quite a bit below their original average. Much worse, it is a decline from the last quarter (1.1% growth) which, in the current economy, is not a good thing. Then again last quarter’s growth was quite a jump, but stabilisation at this point is stalling growth. I suppose we’ll have to wait and see for now. It could really go either way.
“Moderate your approach in light of more positive economic statistics”… oh I see. The Coalition intends to increase economic confidence through their policies, confidence will ensure growth, therefore if the economy is growing as a result of their policies then they must have created confidence so they can afford to moderate in order to damage public services only as much as necesseary. I think I got that vaguely right. But you say this growth isn’t exactly a result of Coalition policies, so I must have missed some part of your logic there. If growth was negative, then, would the Coalition have to further radicalise their approach? It may just be me, but that seems quite, quite crazy.
In my opinion, for what it’s worth, deficit reduction needs to be a fair amount slower than the Coalition’s aim and mainly the result of non-permanent tax rises but definitely supported by both economic and a good number of “bigger picture” investments – education, science, technology, child poverty, social housing, structured youth clubs, english lessons for immigrants; all kinds of things that pay significant and sustained returns. I’ve changed my mind about the Coalition’s review of bureaucracy, actually, it has the potential to be a very good thing as long as done properly. Government, as much as I hate to say this, should act more like a business, not as in turning over the highest possible profit, but in using its resources in the most efficent way possible while providing the highest possible service (for want of a better word, it shouldn’t always be seen as a service – education for example). As with most things, it is a fine line, but it should be done. Now I think I’ve written quite enough. Good day.