Need we say more…

Chancellor George Osborne speaking at Bloomberg headquarters 17/08/2010

Boy George (Osborne), DC (Cameron) and Cleggy have all ardently claimed that the recent “emergency budget” was hardwired into being a “progressive” budget and that the poor would be shielded from the upcoming years of austerity and that in the words of DC, “we are all in this together”…….what he forgot to add was “…unless you’re rich but you’re particularly in if you’re poor”.

A recent report by the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), Britain’s leading independent tax organisations completely destroyed the coalitions claims that the budget is “progressive” but rather describing it as “clearly regressive as, on average, they hit the poorest households more than those in the upper middle of the income distribution in cash, let alone percentage, terms.”. Yes, you read the quote correctly; it hits the poorest harder in cash never mind percentage terms!

The IFS also said the poorest 10% of families would lose over 5% of their income as a result of the budget compared with a loss of less than 1% for non-pensioner households without children in the richest 10% of households. It added that the budget contrasted with the “progressive” plans for 2010-14 inherited from Labour, under which the richest 10% of households bore the brunt of the cuts.

Leaving aside whether it is a right or wrong descision to attempt to remove the structural deficit within 5 years, I can assure you know that the coalition will turn round and you use one of the oldest tricks in the books, blame the predecessors. Well let me say, don’t you even dare, don’t even dare, this is now totally the coalition’s doing. This is what happens when you have severe changes to housing benefit, disability allowances, tax credits and a deficit reduction plan that is totally out of balance in terms of cuts to taxation.

We all knew the Tories where bulling when DC stated that “we are all in this together” and that the Lib Dems had sold themselves out on economic policy, but now we have conclusive proof from a well respected independent body, all we can say now is, need we say more…

Max

Ideological dogma, and nothing less

19.07.2010: Martin Rowson on the Tory spending cut sideshow

David Cameron (DC) was today in none other than good ol’ Brum at a “PM direct” session (where I think BCF where present). Reading in the Guardian http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/aug/03/david-cameron-public-sector-cuts-permanent (sorry Sean but I saw it on Facebook) recently DC pledged at the session that once the deficit has been dealt with, funding will not be restored to public services.

Now to put this in perspective, DC (and recently Cleggy) have been arguing that the savage cuts they are going to make to the public sector are apparently “necessary”, leaving aside whether the ideas are right or wrong it is this key argument of “necessity” that has prevailed through. What we have seen here from DC is that no, the rate in which they are cutting is not in fact necessary but rather a pre-text for petty ideological goals and dogma.Essentially, what DC is saying is that once the deficit has been dealt with, the state will not return to help those in need, it won’t increase investment in the primary areas of the NHS, Police (which protect the health, safety and wellbeing of people) and Education which are three most important tiers of the public sector and social benefits to those truly in need them in any future troubles will also be stuck at their austerity levels.DC states that “How can we do things differently and better to give value for money?” which is understandably fair enough, if you’re going to spend money, it has to be at the best value for money, but there is a distinct line between “value for money” and downright underinvestment. I hope DC will have the humility one day to feel remorse for the pain he is about to cause for mere ideological dogma.

Max

153, jellyfish, Trident, dolphins and a seal

Chris Riddell 11.07.2010

Firstly, apologies for the lack of blogging recently. Been away in north Wales for the past week surrounded by a seal, dolphins (yes you heard me actual dolphins in north Wales!) and what seemed to be the world’s largest gathering of jellyfish, but that unfortunately is a different story.

Moving on swiftly, Education Secretary Michael Gove promised one of the greatest revolutionary reforms to the education system of all time. This was hoped to be achieved through the expansion of the academy programme which was started by Tony Blair’s Labour government. The Academy school programme was initially targeted at underperforming areas, now I don’t know if they were successful or not, but it seemed a good….ish idea at the time.

But now Gove has began rushing through legislation to allow any school the right to become an academy, independent from the local council (even though they already hold a large degree of autonomy). Gove claimed that around a 1100 schools had already signed up to become academies within a week, however, it was recently revealed a mere 153 have done so since the coalition took office. 153! Ed Balls has accused Gove of railroading the bill given only a mere 10% of the claimed schools have applied. Personally, I’m really not well aware of the pros and cons of the academy programme, but for a coalition that is supposed to represent “new” politics, it certainly shows a lot of the “old” brand by preventing Parliament from doing their job of proper scrutiny of bills.

Moving on again, it has been revealed that there is an apparent schism between the MoD and the Treasury over who should foot the bill for the renewal of Trident. The renewal of Trident is predicted to cost around £20 billion, the MoD budget is £40 billion and there is a large budget deficit, already you can see a slight problem. Personally, I’d love to see the back of Trident, but in the name of compromise here’s an idea that will kill two birds with one stone. How about keeping Trident but not renewing until the deficit is well and truly dealt with? Britain’s nuclear defence system is still very capable of wiping out numerous major cities across the globe, a slight upgrade that would increase the range of the submarines and the blast radius of the missiles a bit would surely not go to miss if its lifespan is prolonged. Just a thought.

Max

Poor poor Vince

Chris Riddell on Nick Clegg

I was watching question time last Thursday (yes I know this might be a bit late) and was pained to see none other than Vince Cable (the only Liberal Democrat I have a great degree of respect for) being effectively made to eat his own words from the general election campaign. It was quite clear that he hated every moment on the show and half of what he said he obviously did not personally believe.

Now the coalition was the best option open for the Liberal Democrats after the election, better to influence events on the inside than shout from the sidelines. But, one of their major failings is that they have for the time being, failed to give the coalition a distinct progressive edge. They failed to shift the burden of the Tory cuts onto the rich but rather onto the poor as argued by the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) http://www.facebook.com/l.php?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.guardian.co.uk%2Fuk%2F2010%2Fjun%2F23%2Fbudget-welfare-poor-ifs-report&h=94854p2-JAX6pOiaLB95ROte4HA and humiliatingly had to u-turn over a rise of VAT which topped the Tories era of austerity.

These failures are being noticed by the electorate, with support in a YouGov poll on the 5th May at a high 28%, while on the 25th June it was shown to have been decimated to a mere 16%. Another poll showed that 48% of people who voted for the Liberal Democrats at the last election are less inclined to do so again, primarily over the rise in VAT.

The future doesn’t look bright for Vince and his fellow Liberal Democrats, if the coalition does succeed the Tories will gain credit, being the dominant partner and if it fails, the Liberal Democrats will never again be able to regard themselves as a progressive force.

Max

The axe falls

Chris Riddell 20.06.10

Today saw George Osborne’s first ever budget as Chancellor in which Nick Clegg and the Liberal Democrats showed how much they had sold themselves out. Despite accusing Cameron of threatening to raise VAT with a re-run of the famous Tory poster of “Labour’s tax bombshell” have now agreed with their coalition partners to indeed raise VAT to 20% in which the house was in uproar! The thing with the VAT is that it is generic, it targets no specific group, so in other words, rather than taxing higher earners, it is those on middle to lower incomes who will suffer from this “tax bombshell”. Here is a rundown of the main aspects of the budget:

  1. VAT will rise from 17.5% to 20% from January 4, 2011 (already touched upon but still rather ironic)
  2. Councils which propose low council tax increases will be offered extra funds to allow them to freeze the tax for one year from April 2011 (would be great if we had the money)
  3. Capital Gains Tax remains at 18% for low and middle-income savers but from midnight, higher rate taxpayers will pay 28% (now that I can agree with)
  4. The capital gains tax “entrepreneurs relief” rate of 10% on the first £2m of gains will be extended to the first £5m (frankly if they earn that much they deserve a level of taxation, especially now)
  5. No raise to alcohol, cigarettes and fuel (pity it wasn’t raised on cigarettes)
  6. Low income families will get more Child Tax Credit – the amount per child will rise by £150 above the rate of inflation next year (again, I can agree with that)
  7. Sure Start maternity grant will be restricted to the first child (kind of stupid, better have it the other way around as you will have more mouths to feed)
  8. Corporation Tax will be cut next year to 27%, and by 1% annually for the next three years, until it reaches 24% (should be raised for bigger businesses in my eyes)
  9. Average real terms budget cuts of 25% over four years – except for health and international aid (there goes my local bobby and half of the state sector teachers
  10. Personal income tax allowance to be increased by £1,000 in April to £7,475 – worth £170 a year to basic rate taxpayers (the sole thing in this budget I would commend, obviously the Lib Dems managed to get A concession out).

VAT rise which will hit the poorest hardest and corporation tax cuts…….in the words of J. K. Rowling, “I’ve never voted Tory before, and they keep reminding me why.”

Max

BCF AGM

For those of you who don’t know, Birmingham Conservative Future (BCF) held their Annual General Meeting (AGM) today. I don’t have all the results but here we are:

President: Sophie Shrubsole

Vice-President: Adam Jenner (Internal) & Tim Hasker (External)

Blog Editor: Max Genoni

Publicity Officer: Owen V. Williams

We congratulate everyone who stood and welcome the new committee and hope BCF will rejoin the Guild and become BUCF once more!

Max

Goodbye Brown

Bowing to the judgement of the electorate, and in a dignified and timely manner, Gordon Brown has resigned as PM. As he refused to back a candidate for the Party leadership, so he refused to mention Clegg or Cameron, instead telling the waiting cameras how much he has enjoyed the opportunity to do good that his job has offered, and how much he’s looking forward to focussing on being a husband and father.

BULS pays tribute to his many years of devoted service, his economic prowess and his honest and heartfelt efforts to improve the lot of the British people and the world’s poorest.

As for the new coalition government, my feelings are summed up in this pithy poem:

Roses are red,

Labour are too

We were right when we warned them

Vote yellow get blue

But here’s to making the most of opposition. Here’s to laughing in the face of compromise and putting our Labour values first. Here’s to spending more time and effort in constituencies and local government. Here’s to doing everything we can to make this time count. And here’s to getting back in as soon as the electorate deems us worthy.

Suzy

Something else to be proud of…

Labour had 191 women PPCs prior to this election, which has translated into 81 women MPs – 31% of Labour MPs.

For comparison:

Labour had 101 women MPs in 1997, 24% of the total.

And the tories in 2010?

48 women MPs. 15% of the total.

Labour have also provided parliament with its first 3 muslim women MPs – Rushanara Ali of Bethnal Green and Bow, Yasmin Qureshi of Bolton South East and Shabana Mahmood of our very own Birmingham Ladywood!

And 12 other black or ethnic minority MPs – Diane Abbott kept Hackney North and Stoke Newington, Keith Vaz kept Leicester East, Marsha Singh of Bradford West, Sharma Virendra of Ealing Southall, Gavin Shuker of Luton South, Khalid Mahmood of our own Birmingham Perry Barr, the great David Lammy of Tottenham, Sadiq Khan of “yes we Khan” fame and Tooting, Mark Hendrick of Preston, Anas Sarwar of Glasgow Central, Chuka Umunna of Streatham and Dr Chinyelu Susan Onwurah of Newcastle Central.

That’s 5.8% of Labour MPs. We’re almost there on representation, at least as regards sex and ethnicity!

So proud to be Labour. Our party prioritises equality. You can’t say fairer than that.

Suzy

Philippa Stroud

Firstly I’d like to thank BULS for electing me to the post of director of social media. Otherwise I would never have joined Twitter and therefore never have been made aware of who Philippa Stroud is and what she stands for. 36 hours after the story broke on the front page of the Observer all other major papers (apart from the Telegraph which played it down) and even the BBC have maintained a deafening silence on the issue. Ken Livingstone raised the issue on the Daily Politics show and was hushed up by the presenters.

But it’s been trending #1 on Uk twitter for 24 hours, the facebook event “Lets help Philippa Stroud get better” has 62 members and the facebook group “If Cameron cares an ounce about LGBT people, he’ll sack Philippa Stroud” has 1,544 members and counting.

This is big news, and it’s simply not being reported by the Murdoch press. The silence of the BBC, to whom, according to Stonewall UK the LGBT community contribute £190 million annually in license fees on this issue is shameful.

So what has Philippa Stroud done?

Having stood as a Conservative PPC in Ladywood Birmingham in 2005 she is now standing for Sutton and Cheam in South London. In 1989 she founded the King’s Arms Project – a Christian night shelter offering counselling to drug addicts, alcoholics, and LGBT people. She believed homosexuality was caused by demons, and could be cured by prayer and exorcism.

There has been no statement of apology or explanation from the Conservative party or David Cameron, Philippa Stroud herself having issued a statement which leaves lots of questions unanswered: ”I make no apology for being a committed Christian. However, it is categorically untrue that I believe homosexuality to be an illness and I am deeply offended that The Observer has suggested otherwise. I have spent 20 years working with disturbed people who society have turned their back on and are not often supported by state agencies; drug addicts, alcoholics, the mentally ill and the homeless that I and my charitable friends in the public sector have tried to help over the years. The idea that I am prejudiced against gay people is both false and insulting.

She refused to comment on whether she believes LGBT people can be cured by the power of prayer, and whether she includes them under her definition of “disturbed people” or the “mentally ill”. She may not be prejudiced against the LGBT community in that she would treat them the same as anyone else suffering from demon possession, but is clearly not pro-liberation.

As a member of the New Frontiers Church of which her husband is a minister she has also pledged to: “be subservient to the wishes of my husband in all things” and submit to “male servant leadership and joyful female submission” – a remarkable attitude for a prospective female MP. I wonder what her views on abortion, same-sex civil partnerships and LGBT adoption are?  And when it became OK for the state and religion to cross over in this manner?

For a full briefing of the recent LGBT gaffes committed by the Tories see http://issacgreaves.eu/attackoftheclones/

The public have a right to demand proper coverage, proper investigation and a proper apology or some heads on plates. Instead we have 768 google hits for Gillian Duffy , and only 9 for Philippa Stroud.

My only comfort is that she probably won’t get elected because the constituency in which she’s standing has a strong and popular Lib Dem MP Paul Burstow who is standing for re-election.

Suzy

Round 3

Nick Clegg, David Cameron, Gordon Brown

I would’ve blogged on this sooner, but been busy lately. Well the final debate went rather well. Being held in the Aston Webb building at the very University of Birmingham meant that many BULS members were interviewed by news companies on TV and radio, including BBC West Midlands, Sky News (shudder) and famously a group of us had one with Channel 4 (unfortunately, only 20 seconds and only Michael Brownlee and James Arnold spoke in it).

On the actual debate itself, while I personally think Brown didn’t do AS well as last week. On the upside though, there were two locations for watching the debate on campus, Joe’s Bar (where BUCF were giving out their goody bags, despite not actually being allowed to do) and a screen on the Rugby Pitch and there was a hugely ANTI-Cameron feeling with a HIGHLY pro-Brown and to a lesser extent pro-Clegg feeling. And my Brown did well; Clegg was still spouting his criticisms of Brown and Cameron as the “other two” and the “old parties” which while worked in the first debate is a huge bore and turn off in the debate and Cameron completely failed to justify why he would give a £200,000 give a way to the 3000 richest families while cutting child tax credits for those earning £20,000 a year.

Also, Brown was interviewed by Jeremy Paxman on Newsnight and he did extremely well I personally think. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/newsnight/8655562.stm

Max

History in the making…

Hand gestures

Last night saw history in the making in British politics, the first ever televised leaders debate was held on ITV. The main focus of the debate was on domestic affairs covering immigration, cleaning up politics, crime, education and the NHS.

Now in terms of answering the questions, connecting with audience (whether in studio or at home) and expressing his views, the debate was easily won by Nick Clegg. It would have been highly surprising if Brown had won on those particular areas, given his ‘radio face’. However, when it came to substance and detail, Brown was the clear winner as reflected on the likes of Facebook and Question that followed the debate on BBC1 and simply the fact that detail is Brown’s strength.

The less said about Dave the better who mentioned his token ‘black person’ friend, regarded China as dangerous as Iran and completely failed to answer Brown’s questions on comittment to spending on law and order and education.

The next debate is to be held on Thursday the 22nd April on Sky News, which will focus upon International Affairs. I personally will be looking forward to watching Dave receive questions on his allies in the European Parliament.

Max

Radicals? Really?

I was surprised yesterday to see Dave have a column in the comments section of the Guardian where he claimed the Tories were the true radicals and that Labour were now the reactionaries. A more or less response was published in todays Guardian from Polly Toynbee which effectively ripped Dave to shreds-http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/apr/10/beware-radical-tories-reality-terrifying

In short this was little points of the modern Tory party:

  • Dave and Boy George are advocating cuts to public services, benefits, borrowing and letting unemployment rip
  • When this last happened child poverty shot up from 1 in every 7 children to 1 in every 3
  • “tax credits, better benefits and Sure Start lifted 500,000 out of poverty”
  • “a marriage bribe of £150 that leaves out the lowest paid married couples and deserted wives.”
  • “In the wash-up Cameron stopped a referendum on the voting system and House of Lords reform.”
  • “He blocked sex education and one-to-one tuition for slow readers.”
  • “His shadow home secretary repudiated protection for gay people, while his MEPs voted for homophobia with their weird new party.”
  • “A Financial Times survey of Tory candidates this week pointed to the scale of climate change denial in the party.”
  • “Most resist a cap on bankers’ bonuses and want less financial regulation: many come from the financial sector, others from PR and marketing, and they want the 50p top tax scrapped.”
  • “Conservativehome.com finds them rabidly Eurosceptic.”
  • “The national insurance rise they oppose costs £4 a week per employee – not, says James Caan of Dragons’ Den, a sum that deters hiring.”
  • “he will cap public officials’ pay at 20 times their lowest paid staff. Reasonable enough, but Income Data Services says only some 100 people would be affected.”
  • “Voters know that the big market destroyed the economy, while the big state rescued it.”
  • “Cameron offers tax cuts that will require double the depth of spending cuts and probably mean double the job losses.”
  • Would scrap the regional development agency
  • “ Cameron would increase unemployment: the Small Business Federation says “the jewel in the crown” of Labour’s Keynesian borrowing is the £5bn of tax postponed for 200,000 small businesses, saving many of them and their 1.4m jobs. But Cameron says all such borrowing “must stop instantly”. Unemployment is much lower than expected, but Cameron would send it back to the 1980s.”
  • “Most wicked would be Cameron’s plan to cut Sure Start back to its origins, with maybe 500 of 3,500 centres surviving in skeleton: so much for his concern about “social mobility stalling”.”
  • “School budgets, not ringfenced, would get a £1.7bn cut, the Institute for Fiscal Studies reckons, before paying for new parent-run schools.”

So evidently, he is in fact radical, but not in the way he makes himself out to be.

Max

‘Efficiency’ savings

Two little things pointed out today on the BBC I found rather funny on the ensuing national insurance rise/Tory ‘efficiency’ savings.

  1. Alistair Darling today pointed out that this morning Dave admitted that his proposed ‘efficiency’ savings would not be enough to fund all his proposed tax breaks but then declined to say where the money would come from to fund the rest.
  2. And on BBC news amongst Tories promising to extend a stopping of benefits if an individual is caught committing benefit fraud 3 times to (I think) 3 years; they failed to point out that not a single person last year got caught committing benefit fraud 3 times.

A little on the side, tax breaks for married couples, while still lacking full detail (how original) the Tories will be going ahead with it. I’m sorry but you could really spend that money elsewhere on far better causes like rejuvenating deprived areas, creating a more environmentally friendly economy or simply paying off the deficit.

Max

Just a thought…

With the campaign well under way, many have begun to question Dave’s consistency on cutting the deficit. Labour wishes to cut the deficit in half in 4 years, the Tories say they will do it faster. However, there is one little nagging issue for the Tories as they have made similar pledges to cut certain taxes, namely:

  • Most of the national insurance rise
  • Inheritance tax for the 3000 richest families
  • Marriage tax breaks
  • Council tax

Now frankly during decent economic periods these would actually be realistic arguments and policies, but when the UK has only just emerged from recession (I read somewhere today that the UK has in fact avoided a double-dip recession with growth at 0.4% for the first quarter) and a substantial budget deficit. So where will this money come from to fund millionaires? Yep, you guessed it, front line services with Boy George (Osborne) saying that it would cost 44,000 public sector jobs. There has been an apparent efficiency savings but even IF they managed to cough up the aforementioned amount of money it still would not be enough to cover all the tax cuts.

Max

Lest we forget 2

2. Tory political oppurtunism at the worst possible time

Chris Riddell: The broken society ...

The second blog in this series I was going to save for last but as it is the biggest issue I personally have against Dave and the Tories, I thought it’d be better to get it out of the way now. The cartoon above is taken from my favourite political cartoonist, Chris Riddell, from the Observer. This was done just after the Tories 2008 party conference and virtually the start of the financial crisis were the banks were on the edge of collapse.

If you drift your memories back to Labour’s 2008 conference Gordon Brown famously stated in the midst of the banking crisis, “this is no time for a novice”. This was followed by Dave at the Tory party conference who pledged Brown a degree of support to bail-out the banks. 10 days later Dave changed tack in PMQs and attacking Brown for the likes of reckless spending and so ending the temporary political truce. Evidently Dave’s made a big issue out of this since which, but what about those 10 days?

Brown was jetting around Europe organising an international effort during those 10 days and obviously he got a tad of media coverage, which was inevitable given the circumstances.

So it can be seen that Dave did realise that this at the time was the right course of action but once again his need to appear different to the Government (and somehow a better option) prevailed. But, this is something we cannot allow the public to forget or to forgive!

Max

Lest we forget 1

In response to BUC”F”s Daniel Cole’s “Lest we forget” blogs on the BUC”F” site I thought in the name of balance, point out what is so dearly wrong with the Tories and why they should not be allowed to govern. This will hopefully come in weekly instalments.

1. Tory dogma and opposition to real change

  • 1998, the Tories opposed the introduction of the minimum wage, which until previously wages such as £2 per hour were common place and legal
  • 1997-8, the Tories opposed devolution to Scotland (only to later accept it)
  • Plan to cut child tax credits
  • Plan to scrap many Sure Star centres for those on modest incomes
  • Voted against the compulsory 5 year jail sentence for carrying a gun
  • David Cameron voted against granting gay couples the right to adopt
  • Plan to scrap patient’s right to see a specialist within two weeks if your GP suspects you have cancer (which I frankly find disgusting)
  • 2002, the Tories opposed the ban on hunting Foxes with dogs (and wish to overturn the ban still)
  • David Cameron voted against the NHS Foundation Trust in 2003
  • David Cameron voted to keep Section 28 in 2003
  • The Tories are against the proposed AV system and making the House of Lords an elected chamber

 Tory dogma, once again. More to come next week and every week until the election

Max

It’s the little victories that count

Today saw Boy George (George Osborne) going to the business school on campus today. BULS was planning to have a protest, but unfortunately, not enough people turned up (only me, Dan and Maise with Kieran and Jake turning up after he had gone). Thankfully though, we did manage to get a little victory, which made our day. After covertly sneaking in, acquiring some discarded name badges as effective disguises (I was called Tom), past BUCF who were wearing suits (again) and managed to catch Osborne himself, where Dan managed to get a photo with him.

Enjoy

Max

More political opportunism

BA plane

 It was revealed yesterday that the Tories have seized on strikes by British Airways and on the railways to claim Britain is facing a “spring of discontent” because of Labour. Now I’m sorry, whatever your views on the individual strikes taking place at the moment, you can hardly compare this to the ‘winter of discontent’, the circumstances are entirely different, for a start Unions are nowhere near as powerful and influential as they once were. It just seems to me that Dave’s using this opportunity to 1. Distract media attention from his Lord Ashcroft scandal, 2. Try and give Brown another blow and 3. Similarly, trying to take a swipe at the Unions because of his party’s dogmatic view. Political opportunism at its best.

Max

BUCF derecognised, again

BREAKING NEWS!

It was recently learnt that the Birmingham University Conservative Future (BUCF) was derecognised yesterday. This isn’t the first time the BUCF has been derecognised (http://bulsonline.org/2008/12/06/buls-inside-i-didnt-recognise-bucf/). However, this time little is known (on my part at least) what were the reasons for this. From what I know directly from BUCF members is that they received an email of constitutional breaches (not sure if it was the Guild’s or their own constitution though) and not to mention the ongoing fiasco over their AGM. I do know from a particular source in BUCF that they had been considering voluntarily derecognising for some time as they haven’t received a grant from the Guild in a couple of years.

Whatever the reasons, I’m sure they’re far better than last time (essentially no one was sent to a Guild Council meeting for months on end). Obviously, the full story so far is not known so this presumption may well be wrong, but every other society manages to get the grant, why not BUCF? I sincerely wish they could sort out their problems and get back into the Guild, but whatever happens, we wish them the best of luck. And if anyone from BUCF wants to fill in the details it would be much appreciated.

Max

Neck and neck

As this article shows (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7054655.ece), polling in the key marginal seats is essentially, neck and neck with occasionally Labour pulling ahead to a o.6% margin, while this is certainly not much it is far better than it was about 6 months ago.

But what has gone wrong for the Tories, throughout most of 2009 they were often polling around a 15% lead, this has been drastically slashed to around 6% now and because the FPTP system heavily favours Labour (the great irony of Tory opposition to the proposed AV system) it would mean the Tories would only just be the largest party in a hung Parliament by 3 or so seats. There are a number of reasons I believe for this decline:

Obviously, these past 2 months for Dave have not been his best, Ashcroft non-dom revelation, changing tack on spending cuts, 3 times getting the statistics wrong (crime, teenage pregnancy rates and the number of votes cast at the last election). But, I personally think there is one simple reason, they have got complacent, the Tories believe they will be able to just waltz into No. 10 and in doing so have not made the policies bomb-proof (so to speak) for when the spotlight was turned upon them. Back in 1997, New Labour feared Major and the government and so they ran a highly tight campaign, not leaving room for error. This is the Tory’s greatest failure, underestimating Labour.

Max

So much for a “good clean fight”

Well it wasn’t just DOD. http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Politics/Conservative-Party-Headquarters-Call-On-Conservative-Future-To-Disrupt-Browns-Election-Speech/Article/201002315553150?lpos=Politics_First_Poilitics_Article_Teaser_Regi_4&lid=ARTICLE_15553150_Conservative_Party_Headquarters_Call_On_Conservative_Future_To_Disrupt_Browns_Election_Speech

Seems like some people like to fight dirty. “In a leaked email to members, chairwoman Sophie Shrubsole said: “CCHQ (Conservative headquarters) have requested that Conservative Future members from across the country gather in Warwick to form our own publicity stunt. This will be a sign to the Prime Minister and the Labour Party as a whole, that as Conservatives we are ready for the General Election. It will no doubt act as a demoralising element to Gordon Brown’s trip. Ms Shrubsole told members: “This will not appear as a Facebook event, as we are trying to keep our preparations as low-key as possible.”…Now while Sophie is not the “chairwoman”, I do personally think that BUC”F” has sunk to a new low.

From what I’ve heard it was regarded as rather amusing at the conference. Pity the Tories are having to resort to this, no one was there at the opening of the airbrushed Dave posters, admittadely they were vandalised a bit later on, but your kind of asking for it when they’re that bad.

Max

3rd time lucky?…maybe not

Well frankly, the last month and a half have been a bit of a sham for the Tories. Twice in recent weeks they have come out with false statistics (the first being the level of violent crime and the second being the number of votes at the last general election and so why we shouldn’t switch to AV-http://bulsonline.org/2010/02/09/deja-vu/). While the crime figures have some context due to the changing of the system in 2002 but this-http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8515798.stm is a tad over the top. The 10 poorest areas of the country have 54% of 18 year old girls pregnant or have had a baby? Nope, somewhat like 5.4% (down on 1998 at 6%), somewhat missed a decimal place there in an attempted to bash the “broken” Britain! Even the Liberal Democrats’ chief of staff, Danny Alexander, saying: “The Tories seem to think that half our teenagers are pregnant, our cities are like The Wire and that people will get married for a few extra quid.”

Well chosen words

Max

The twisting of the evidence

Like most people at BULS, up until the UK emerged from recession I was beginning to find it rather boring of Dave and Osborne attacking the government for lagging behind in recession while the “world left us behind”. But, this has been showed by recent figures that this well is not going to happen just yet.  Europe’s biggest economy, Germany failed to grow at all in the last quarter of 2009 while other countries such as Spain, Italy (who’s also apart of the G20) and Greece are still in recession. This shows that no Dave, we weren’t being left behind, and drastic cuts will plunge UK and then potentially parts of Europe back into recession also.

Mini-rant over

Max

I thought the Tories were supposed to be good at PR

A new poster was revealed yesterday (I think) by the Conservative headquatres. While Cameron wisely after the fiasco of his last poster stood out this time the new poster does reveal a new level of hypocracy.

Personally, I like the fact that they skimmed over their own inheritance tax cuts. Here’s two improved posters.

RIP Tory Marketing Strategy 2009-10

Come on Dave, Labour hasn’t even started their campaign yet, pull yourself together!

Max

Deja vu

Well, I recently found this on the Tories main website with good ol’ Eric Pickles talking about Tory opposition to the proposed AV system (which while he’s denying plurality to the British people he indeed does have the right to oppose), but when it gets to 0.50 in, quite a blatant factual flaw arises (I wonder if he got the statistics from Chris Grayling).

Now, there is blatant proof other wise from this source (http://www.parliament.uk/commons/lib/research/rp2005/RP05-033.pdf) if there’s any doubt, just go to page 8 which even though doesn’t have the exact number of votes, the percentage itself is pretty clear. Keep the statistics right Eric!

Max

No price on a life

Gordon Brown today pledged to offer free, one-to-one home care by specialist nurses to those suffering from Cancer. This in turn would save £2.5 billion a year by reducing hospital admissions. However, some people seem to not get the message, Andrew Lansley the Shadow health secretary said that “Gordon Brown needs to make clear to patients which other schemes he plans to cut” and claims that this will in fact cost £100m. I’m sorry, but so much for “I’ll cut the deficit, not the NHS” and also, I personally think that if it leaves £100 million more in debt but saves lives (which it will) it is money well spent.

Max

‘Skin-deep’ localism

A school classroom

This frankly is rightly so, if you decentralise administration too much of any governmental department it will lead down the road of blatant inequality on the part (in this case schools) of the ones using the service. This is very much similar to the NHS checklist, where the Tories quite frankly oppose a measure (theoretically at least) that grants a minimum standard to all patients who are admitted. Now this is the same again, some schools will be put in the most ridiculous locations and so degrading the minimum standard which should be guaranteed to everyone, not just to help a small privileged few.

It has recently been revealed that if they won the general election, the Conservatives would in effect; treat new schools like major infrastructure projects. But Schools Minister Vernon Coaker said, “With no planning restrictions schools will be able to open in pre-fabricated buildings and rented office blocks, as they do in Sweden, without the sort of decent facilities all children should have like places to play and do sport outside.”.

Max

A nation of conservatives?…Nah!

  There’s recently been a lot of talk that apparently the only thing 13 years of Labour governments has achieved is that we are all now conservative. Well, to be frank, this is ain’t true. A recent poll conducted by Comres and published yesterday in the Independent (the one that shows that also shows the Tory lead has shrunk to a mere 7 points) shows that more people identify themselves as Labour rather than Tory (37-31 in fact-http://www.leftfootforward.org/2010/02/more-people-identify-as-labour-as-public-remain-sceptical-of-tory-economic-policy/). Personally, from seeing these figures, it shows that the most Dave can achieve at the next general election, the very most, is a small Conservative majority (around 20 or so).

Britain, well and truly progressive since 1964! 

Max

A new politics?

In the wake of the expenses scandal, all the major parties claimed they would re-invent British politics. Here is one such action that well frankly, is quite brilliant. Electoral reform by changing the old FPTP system to an AV system. Now personally I think this is a brilliant idea, to sum it up quite simply, the new system will not only retain MP’s strong links to their constituencies but they will for the first time all achieve over 50% of the vote (sort of) through a system preference making, vis-a-vis (that’s probably not the right context but hey, lol) better representation.

While the Lib Dems welcomed this is as a start (which is fair enough) the Tory’s were the helpful selves again with Conservative chairman Eric Pickles said, “Gordon Brown avoided a leadership election, bottled a general election and now wants to fiddle the electoral system,” (yawn).

Max

“Iron Lady” to “Flip-flop” Dave…Oh dear, oh dear

It was announced on the 15th January, George Osborne was telling us that the Tories would bring in an emergency budget within 50 days of taking office. Now this was all very fine (except for of course, it is the wrong measure to take), but Dave himself today said that a Conservative government would not make “swingeing cuts” to public spending during its first year.

Now, in all due fairness, credit has to be given to Dave, he’s finally beginning to see sense, but this is a far flung shot from the Tory’s “Glory Days” under Maggie herself with the famous, “You turn if you want to. The lady’s not for turning”. Pity for Cameron he somewhat fails to live up to her.

Max

‘Broken Society’ an excuse to batter Britain.

I do not like to use isolated incidents for point scoring. So I think David Cameron’s use of the Doncaster killings is no better than populist electioneering. Tony Blair used the Bulger killings in a similar way. Not to say that these killings are not newsworthy. Truly they are horrific. But the reason that they are newsworthy must surely be because they are so shocking? If our society was broken, to the extent that David Cameron says, why would this sort of incident not occur more often. But if we take the Bulger killing in Liverpool and this latest one in Doncaster, we can see that the killings took place in similar areas. Liverpool, in 1993, was a wreckage of a place slowly struggling out of the depressing circumstances of the 1980s when its main industries were closed, communities uprooted and many families livelihoods threatened. Type into google ‘the Toxteth riots’ for an indication of how bad it was. In 1993 then, Liverpool was a down and out place, not the resurgent and confident city that it has began to be rebuilt into in recent years. Doncaster similarly is an area that had its main industry (mining) torn out from under it in the 1980s. It has had similar problems with unemployment, uprooted communities and crime. Hence we see the parallels between the two places.
Clearly there are problems when crimes such as the Bulger and Doncaster killings take place. As I said, I think it is unfair for anyone, Labour or Conservative, to use one crime for political purposes. Just as I think attributing such crimes to a “broken society” as Mr Cameron does, when these killings have taken place in communities that have been broken by a Conservative government, which David Cameron largely intends on reciprocating, and whose leader Mrs Thatcher stated “There is no such thing as society.” The angry public reaction to these killings, suggests, in my view, that while there is certainly evidence of problems within our society, it is very much in existence and is still far from broken.
 
Sean Woodcock, BULS Member

Welcome news

Unemployment recently fell by 7000, making this recession the quickest to see a rise in employment. Correct me if I’m wrong but this seems to be something the Tories are skimming over…..who are we to judge. This has now left unemployment figures back under 2.46 million. Yes there is the good chance it may start to increase again, but it is forecast (albeit not by the Met office) to peak at a mere 2.8 million which 1. is half a million lower than the previous two recessions and due to population growth, far proportionally lower than either of the past two recessions. There is also the interesting fact that we are dealing with long term unemployment, rather than leaving a generation on the dole with over the past year, 70% of claimants have come off benefits within six months, compared with 63% in the downturn of the early 1990s and 60% in the recession of the early 1980s.

Money well spent don’t you think?

Max

Ironic…

In the wake of Obama proposing new curbs on banks, the Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer, (Boy) George Osbourne has quickly followed suit. Now this is all very…very…..nice, correct me if I’m wrong though, but around about 3 years ago didn’t (Boy) George call for greater deregulation? He also recently stated that “This is a welcome move by President Obama that accords very much with our thinking,”….well, despite that Obama supported helping the economy when it was in dire trouble, but surprisingly enough, he didn’t. It seems…just seems that (Boy) George is trying to cuddle up to “Mr President” (don’t believe me, check the BUC”F”s blog on the “special relationship” between Britain and America at the moment)…..just a thought.

Max

Teachers are for all students, not just for high achievers

As a recent school finisher with two teachers for parents I would like to take issue with recently announced Conservative plans to limit PGCE funding to those with a second class degree or higher on two particular points:

1. Academic achievement is no indication of charisma, sensitivity or ability to engage with young people.

2. Teachers are hugely important as role models, and as such must have a certain amount in common with students or at least an understanding of pupils’ different backgrounds. As people from predominantly privileged and caucasian backgrounds are more likely than others to receive an upper second or first from a Russell Group university, make teaching a “prestigious” occupation by limiting funding will not encourage mutual understanding between teachers and pupils. Male teachers particularly may serve as father figures in areas with few male role models, and can be treated as confidants by pupils.

Borderline students who are uncertain of their desire to enter further education, observing a dichotomy between unemployed, low achieving adults in the community, and high achieving Russell Group graduates at school, may fail to identify with either, wishing to become employable but uncertain as to how this is to be done without getting  three As at A level, as the evident message will be: “go to one of the top 20 universities, or don’t bother at all”.

3. Another way to increase the prestige of teaching without limiting applicants to a certain demographic is to raise wages and increase schools funding, as Labour have already done and the Conservatives are threatening to reverse.

Suzy, BULS Guild Council Rep

A year for change?…the change has been here for 13 years Dave

Unless you’ve been living in a cave for over a year you will have somewhat have guessed that the Tories logo has been “Year for Change”, now in all due fairness, very original idea there Dave, there hasn’t been any other politicians that have used “Change” as part of their campaign, especially not across the Atlantic.

In response though, Lord Mandelson at a speech to the Fabian Society coined something a slogan in return “Change for good, change with Labour”, well personally I think could be interpreted wrong, but either way, it shows where the real change is. This can be told by the fact that well, the Conservative and Unionist Party, unlike Labour in the mid and late 1980s, had no radical internal struggle between the old and rising new factions from within the party. All it seems that Dave’s done is slap new logo on (which frankly looks like it was drawn by a 7 year old), hug a few hoodies and ironically branded a totally contradictory slogan.

Mini rant over!

Max

Response to the “Blair rich project”

Recently the BUC”F” had a blog published on their website called the “Blair rich project” (http://bucf.wordpress.com/2010/01/11/the-blair-rich-project/) somehow making Blair’s career success (£12 million earned after 2007) after resigning as PM a political issue.

Now yes he’s done well for himself, but lest you forget that according to the Sunday Times Rich List, David and Samantha Cameron’s combined family wealth is more than £30 million. Doesn’t that say something against “compassionate” Dave? Osborne also has a similar “excess” of money with many Tory MPs holding second jobs on the side at some point in their political careers.

The post then went onto say that:

“Presiding over an unprecedented taxing, borrowing and spending binge which has achieved paltry improvements to the public services and left the country in the worst position of almost any industrialised nation to face the global economic downturn”…Correction, the UK prior to the financial crisis had the second lowest level of borrowing in the G7, most independent financial organisations (CBI and IMF) supported the fiscal stimulus which without would have seen the banks collapse and unemployment skyrocket and even now the UK is under the EU average for proportional budget deficit.

“Taking us to war on a lie – something which he has now all but admitted”….Whether or not it was “a lie” it was “a lie” the Tories supported and still do

“Allowing an unprecedented increase in immigration “swamping” communities and leading to a further erosion of British identity”….Sound like anyone in particular?

“Fostering the breakdown of society, family and marriage”….Yet we fail to hear a coherent policy on marriage tax breaks which also is highly discriminative against same sex civil-partners

“Bringing parliament and politics in to total and utter disrepute by presiding over the worst scandal to grip the Commons in living memory in the form of parliamentary expenses”….Funny, didn’t the Tories claim for outrageous expenses as well?

Rant over now, lol!

Max

No thanks Dave…

As you probably will have heard, the Tories have recently “promised” tax breaks for married couples. Obviously this is supposed to be an incentive for people to marry and stay married, but, correct me if I’m wrong, don’t you marry someone because you love them? Another shortfalling (not including whether or not these plans are going to be proposed or not) is that it discriminates quite explicitly against couples in same-sex civil partnerships and not to mention unmarried couples who well, might not like the idea of marriage.

But this also confuses me, doesn’t Cameron whant to rapidly cut the deficit rather than promise more tax cuts?

There’s a better way to this than tax breaks Dave!

Max

Living up to our stereotypes

This blog would’ve been a bit funnier (and more eye catching) if I had a couple of particular photos, however, I can’t, not pointing my fingure at anyone though! Oh and please, don’t take this the wrong way it’s all (hopefully) in good humour.

Well, it’s something that was pointed to me (by I think Pippa) on my first “do” with the BULS. In the backdrop of this apparent “class-war”, eton jibe, I just realised, even at our level, we do play into those stereotypes (well our side of the “class-war” respectively). I joke about this to a friend who is also a member of the BUC”F”, but they do love to dress up don’t they. You have to give the BUC”F” credit though, black bow-ties in a night club in Sheffield (after William Hague’s dinner speech a couple of months back), I’ve still yet to see a BULS member wear a tie yet.

On the other side of the “class-war” rift, BULS lack the grand sophisticated settings the BUCF regulary accounters, being regulars at the Chamon curry house on Bristol Road (fresh from the pits, of course) and often having dead rats pointed out to them by local kids (Redditch for you there Dan!) while campaigning.

Ultimately, this is what I find brilliant about student life, you do sometimes, meet your own narrow-minded pre-conceptions of people and organisations…..though most of the time you are in fact, proved wrong.

Max

Good ol’ Nick

Nick Clegg

 

Recent talks of what the Lib Dems would do in the event of a hung Parliament have got me thinking, what would we allow the Lib Dems in the event of a minority Labour Government following the general election next spring? Cetainly there will be greater and faster constitutional reform (as the Tories would probably not grant that part) and Nick Clegg and Vince Cable (at least) will be given Cabinet positions. But what else? Cameron’s claims that the two parties are more similar than ever is obviously utter rubbish really, I don’t mind the Lib Dems too much and cetainly think we are closer to them ideologically than the Tories.

So, what else do you think would they want in return for their support?

Max

The challenges and responsibilities that face the Labour Party over the next decade

Over the next decade the United Kingdom faces challenges of an extraordinary magnitude. Slowly, but surely limping out of the worst recession in living memory, this country must continue to modernise itself, as it has always done, in order to make itself fit for its time. In the spring of 2010 the people of the Britain will have a choice; whether to retain the Labour Party as their government, or to change to the Conservative government, a party whose ideals and policies deserve to remain where they belong – the past. It is our party’s duty to challenge the tried and failed dogma that the Conservative government so readily presents to the electorate.

However the manner in which the Labour Party goes about this will be vitally important to the future of our country. For I believe that to pursue the policy of mindless partisanship and class war against the Conservative Party will not only serve unsuccessfully for our party, but more importantly for the country. It is our duty to offer the citizens of this country a choice. We must continue to stand by the liberal, progressive principles on which the Labour Party is established on.

Robert Kennedy once said, ‘Some men see things as they are and say why. I dream things that never were and say why not.’ I believe that it is these words that should drive and motivate us, as young people to deliver change and hope to a nation, which has suffered years of partisanship between the two main parties, and scores of broken promises. But we can be the generation that alters this status quo. I am convinced that there are many talented individuals from all racial, religious and economic backgrounds who can come together and make change happen, thus writing another illustrious chapter in the history of our country. Change can only happen if we embrace each other’s differences, celebrate the values we share. If we can do this, we will be able to create the sort of country we want.

The responsibility that we have is the direction that our country intends to move in the next decade. We must be ready to offer not only rhetoric, but solid policies to the British people. Progressive tax systems, a national care system for the elderly; education reforms, including raising the age of starting formal education to seven years old, and doing away with up-front fees for university students, replacing it with a graduate tax – these are just are some of the possible policies that the Labour Party should be presenting to the electorate. Only progressive, radical thinking will show the British people that we remain restless and eager for change. That although we are the party of the NHS, the minimum wage, equality legislation for minority groups, as well as so many other successes, we also seek to continue the reforms that we have often initiated. The work of the progressive liberal is never complete. We must not tire to challenge those who believe that change cannot happen.

Our country needs a political party who will stand up for people who think that all is lost. Whether they are Black, White, Indian, Pakistani; man, woman; young, old; poor or more affluent; gay, straight; disabled or not disabled; whether from England, Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland, we need to show the people that we are the party of equality. That we are the party of diversity and fairness and ambition, and all the other inspirational values that this country shares. As was highly publicised last year, the expenses scandal affected British politics deeply; it is the job of all the main political parties to begin to rebuild the trust with the electorate. Never again should the House of Commons be so hideously undermined. This institution should be the foundations on which our democracy is built upon. It is essential that we make our politicians realise how much damage they have inflicted on our political system; we, in the Labour Party, must spearhead a decade of democratic empowerment to all our citizens, but especially those who feel they have already been forgotten – ethnic minorities, the working classes and young people.

However it is a mighty task, one that cannot be solved by any one person or programme, but by a collective and common effort. Our lives are too short; this should not be the time for hopelessness or austerity. This should not be the time for division and conservatism. What we need in this country is hope, a desire for change; Britain needs a government who is determined to all that is possible to make life better for its people. We, in the Labour Party, must be the bastions of the progressive and liberal advancement that our country will undoubtedly need, if it is to keep its place in the world.

BULS member, Callum Anderson

2009 economics summed up, quite brilliantly

I was reading through the Observer today and found an article from Will Hutton, that essentially summed up 2009 economically (find the main article here http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/jan/03/uk-economic-recovery). The main points being if you can’t be bothered reading:

  • A booming stock market at the end of the year
  • The quickest ever unemployment fall in post-war history
  • Unemployment half a million less than it would’ve been under the Conservatives
  • Labour giving £5bn to Jobcentre Plus Network meaning 10,000 vacancies were found per day
  • The bank bail out and subsequent deficit being the only choice available at the time
  • With a potential Bank collapse had the Tory’s been in power

Max

So it begins….well for some

Chris Riddell 03.01.10

Within a few days I know at least the Conservatives will be firing up their campaign for the 2010 election. There will be soon a vast forray of PR and soundbites from the blue camp, nothing new there. But we need to remember, as always, that this is a mask, despite pledges of NHS cash boost for most deprived areas and a “War Cabinet” (which pointed out by the Culture Secretary Ben Bradshaw, would be rather pointless as Ministers often inform their shadows of events), there is always the same Tory party as also argued by  Liberal Democrat frontbencher Danny Alexander who said Mr Cameron “needs to be honest with people about his real priorities rather than simply parroting lines from spin doctors”.

How do we know this? Yes, there’s all the contradictory policies like the cartoon shows, but there is also the clear fact that, there never was any internal party upheval when “change” was implemented to the Conservative and Unionist Party, no internal struggles between the old and new factions. So take heed of this, only constant reminders can help the British public see though the smokescreen of PR.

Max

Does it really matter?

Leading Tories have recently said, innocent people trying to get their DNA records removed from police databases in England and Wales face a postcode lottery. Now sorry this is something that really gets me going, the whole issue of the DNA database is completely pointless. I can understand the arguements against a database on everyone’s details and ID cards but the arguements against this are based on mere insecurity.

People may argue, I haven’t done anything wrong, yes that may be true, but what physical harm will it cause you? None. I’m all for the state taking and keeping a sample of my DNA, why what’s the worse that could happen, they find out I’ve got hayfever and then send me a bunch of flowers?…………………Rant over now.

Max

No 3 million mark for this recession

Job centre in Glasgow

According to the latest forecast from the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development, unemployment will rise to 2.8 million in 2010, Dr John Philpott, chief economic adviser to the CIPD, said it was a “remarkable outcome” that unemployment had not taken off further, given the scale of the downturn.

However, it is in fact unremarkable, the action taken by this Government over the last year has ensured that unemployment would not rise above the 3 million mark unlike in the two previous recessions. He then warned unemployment could also rise higher if …the government imposed deeper spending cuts, blatantly showing that not only do the rest of the political world agrees with out actions, but so do most independant organisations, placing one particlar party in the corner, no guesses who.

Max

Televised debates

Gordon Brown, David Cameron and Nick Clegg

After a while of talks and speculation, a deal has finally been brokered between the three major parties and three broadcasting companies. The three party leaders will battle it out over a series of three broadcasts. The first is to be on ITV, hosted by Alastair Stewart, the second on Sky, hosted by Adam Boulton and the third and final debte will be on BBC, hosted by David Dimbleby.

Now clearly this is a golden chance to re-present politics to the increasingly bitter and disalusioned public. This being clearly something new to the British public will have I’m guessing, at least 10 million watching (well for the first and third debates anyway). There will also hopefully be the SNP and Plaid Cymru participating in the respective regional debates of Scotland and Wales with one also being held in Northeren Ireland.

I personally hope, that unlike in PMQs, where obviously the questions are directed at the PM, the British public will question Cameron on his policies (if he has enough for an hour and a half debate, which I sincerly doubt) and show that the Tories haven’t changed and that a change of logo and slogon doesn’t mean a change of mindset.

Max